15％发展目标下的我国非化石能源发展研究

结合我国各种非化石能源资源及其发电特性，研究了各种非化石能源的单位投资能源替代效益，分析了不同能源消费水平下，为达到我国政府提出的争取到2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15％左右的发展目标，各种非化石能源应达到的发电装机总量与结构，能源消费水平对装机规模和静态投资的影响。指出未来我国在加快发展水电、核电和风电的同时，应加强节能，控制能源消费规模，并适当提高核电利用小时数，以降低非化石能源发展代价。

Study on the Development of Non-fossil Energy in China under the Proportional Target of 15%

Based on the resources and power generation characteristics of non-fossil energies, this paper studies the energy-substitution benefits of unit capacity investment of non-fossil energies, and makes a prediction of the total installed capacities and constitutions of non-fossil energies that shall be achieved under different energy-consumption levels in order to achieve the state-government-proposed goal that the non-fossil energies make up about 15% of the primary energy consumption by the year 2020. The impacts of different energy-consumption levels on the installed power capacity and static investment are also analyzed. It is concluded that in the meantime speeding up development of hydropower, nuclear power and wind power, China should strengthen the energy-saving measures, control the energy consumption scales and appropriately improve the utilization hours of nuclear power so as to lower the cost of non-fossil energy development.