基于可持续发展的国家物质流分析

210003本文采用物质流分析方法,研究了1995—2002年中国经济系统的物质输入和输出等相关指标,发现经济系统的物质需求总量和物质输出总量巨大,自然环境的生态压力短期内无法得到缓解;人均物质需求量不高,物质生产力也很低;环境库兹涅茨曲线呈现出倒“U”型,最高点出现在人均收入700美元,然后进入下降通道;技术水平是影响物质需求总量变化的关键因素;出口能源中的煤炭存在巨大隐藏流是导致生态贸易赤字的主要原因。

Material Flow Analysis of Nations Based on Sustainable Development

By means of material flow analysis, this paper studies relative indexes of material input & output of Chinese economic system in 1995-2002, and discovers that: Total material requirement and total material output of economic system are tremendous, ecology pressure of environment can not be relieved in short terms; Material requirement per capital is not high, and material productivity is rather low;Environment Kuznets curve appears reversed "U", the highest top emerges 700$ per capital, then goes the decline passage; Technique level has the key effects on total material requirement; Huge hidden flows of the output energy-coal is the main reason to cause ecology trade deficit.