| 建立铁路货运量季节性预测模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 任德亮,李向国,张天伟.建立铁路货运量季节性预测模型的研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2004,26(8):65-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任德亮 李向国 张天伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 石家庄铁道学院,科技处,河北,石家庄,050043
2. 石家庄铁道学院,交通工程分院,河北,石家庄,050043 |
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| 摘 要： | 铁路货运量预测是编制运输方案的依据,目前采用的预测方法,难以全面、科学地反映数据的内在结构和复杂性,以年度为单位预测时,误差不大,但按月度预测时,则误差较大。为此利用三角函数周期性的特点,辅以线性趋势变动,建立适合不同预测期限、不同预测精度的季节性预测模型,经实例检测能够较为准确地预测月计划运输量。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 货运量 预测模型 季节性 研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1421(2004)08-0065-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年6月23日 |
Study in Creating Seasonal Forecast Model for Railway Freight Transport Volume |
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| REN De-liang,LI Xiang-guo,ZHANG Tian-wei.Study in Creating Seasonal Forecast Model for Railway Freight Transport Volume[J].Rail Way Transport and Economy,2004,26(8):65-67. |
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| Authors: | REN De-liang LI Xiang-guo ZHANG Tian-wei |
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| Institution: | REN De-liang1,LI Xiang-guo2,ZHANG Tian-wei2 |
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| Abstract: | Railway freight transport volume forecast isthe base for establishing transportation plan. The currentforecast method couldn't reflect the internal structure andthe complicity of data in a complete and scientific way.When carrying out the forecast at annual basis, thedeficiency is ok; however, it becomes obvious when atmonthly basis. Benefiting from the periodicity character oftrigonometric function, assisting by linear tendency change,the paper establishes a seasonal forecast model that is fitfor different forecast period with different accuracy. Theactual application of this model shows that it can accuratelyforecast monthly transport volume. |
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| Keywords: | railway freight transport volume forecastmodel seasonality study |
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