汇率波动、出口结构与贸易福利——基于要素流动与世界经济失衡的分析

研究世界经济失衡背景下,汇率波动对一国出口商品结构和贸易福利的影响具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。本文通过构建不完全竞争模型,研究了世界经济失衡条件下汇率波动对劳动力资源无限供给的国家(以中国为代表)的出口结构与出口福利的影响,并就汇率波动对不同要素密集度产业的出口量、企业利润、就业和出口贸易福利等进行了模拟分析。研究表明:具有一定资本要素密集度的劳动密集型产业的出口受汇率波动的影响最大;劳动密集型产业的出口受到的影响较大;资本密集型产业的出口所受的影响较小;汇率波动对各种产业出口幅度的不同影响将改变一国的出口商品结构。

The Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on Trade structure and Welfare :An Analysis based on Factor Flows and World Economy Imbalance

This paper conceives an imperfect- competition two-states and two-factors model to analysis the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on trade structure, employment of export industries and the welfare of the country (modeling China) whose labor supply is infinity. Through the research, it finds that evaluation of the country's currency is not propitious to enhance the export, employment of export industries, and the country's welfare. Exchange rate variability will change the trade structure of a country. The greatest extent of trade quantity been affected by exchange rate variability appears in the export industry of labor intensive, but with a certain quantity of capital factor. The employment and welfare of labor intensive industry is easy to be affected by exchange rate variability. The effect on capital-intensive industry is relatively small.