碳排放交易制度的节能减排路径：效率提升还是结构转型？——来自中国省级数据的准自然实验

以中国2013年以来实行的碳排放交易试点政策作为准自然实验事件，基于2000-2017年中国30个省市的面板数据，运用双重差分法实证检验碳排放交易制度的节能减排效应及影响机制。研究发现，碳排放交易制度有利于实现中国经济“节能”与“减排”的双重目标，并通过了一系列稳健性检验；作用机制检验表明，能源效率提升和能源结构转型都是碳排放交易制度实现节能减排目标的重要路径；能源效率提升在碳排放交易制度实现“节能”和“减排”中分别发挥了10.19%和5.93%的作用，而能源结构转型分别发挥了48.87%和52.95%的作用。这意味着中国碳排放交易制度实现节能减排的主要动力来自能源结构转型，而非能源效率提升。能源结构转型涉及问题更加宏观和深层，这为中国加快推进节能减排进程，特别是完成2030年碳达峰和2060年碳中和的国际承诺提供政策启示。

Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Path of Carbon Emission Trading System: Efficiency Improvement or Structural Transformation?——Quasi Natural Experiments Based on Provincial Data in China

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2017, this paper uses DID method to empirically test the energy saving and emission reduction effect and the impact mechanism of the carbon emission trading system. The results show that the carbon emission trading system is conducive to achieving the dual goals of “energy saving” and “emission reduction” in China's economy, and has experienced a series of robustness tests. The mechanism test shows that the improvement of energy efficiency and the transformation of energy structure are the important paths for the carbon emission trading system to achieve the goals of energy saving and emission reduction. Energy efficiency improvement played a role of 10.19% and 5.93% respectively in the realization of “energy saving” and “emission reduction” in carbon emission trading system, while energy structure transformation played a role of 48.87% and 52.95% respectively. This means that the main driving force for China's carbon trading system to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction comes from the transformation of energy structure, rather than the improvement of energy efficiency. The transformation of energy structure involves more macro and deep-seated issues, which provides policy enlightenment for China to accelerate the process of energy conservation and emission reduction, especially to fulfill the international commitments of carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060.