| Abstract: | The demographic transition—a change from high to low ratesof mortality and fertility—has been more dramatic in EastAsia during the twentieth century than in any other region orhistorical period. By introducing demographic variables intoan empirical model of economic growth, this article shows thatthis transition has contributed substantially to East Asia'sso-called economic miracle. The miracle occurred in part becauseEast Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-agepopulation growing at a much faster rate than its dependentpopulation during 1965–90, thereby expanding the per capitaproductive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect wasnot inevitable; rather, it occurred because East Asian countrieshad social, economic, and political institutions and policiesthat allowed them to realize the growth potential created bythe transition. The empirical analyses indicate that populationgrowth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth;this effect operates only when the dependent and working-agepopulations are growing at different rates. These results implythat future demographic change will tend to depress growth ratesin East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growthin Southeast and South Asia. |
