基于GIS和空间Logistic模型的城市扩展预测——以深圳市龙岗区为例

从土地利用转化的角度出发,分析了城市扩展的基本原理和过程,提出城市空间扩展直接原因在于城市发展对土地的需求,城市空间扩展预测可分为城市发展用地总体需求预测和空间扩展预测的观点,并采用优化组合预测模型对城市用地总体规模扩展进行建模,利用空间逻辑回归模型对空间分布扩展进行建模,两者共同构建了城市空间扩展预测模型,最后以深圳市龙岗区为例进行试验,验证了这种思路。

URBAN SPATIAL FORECAST BASED ON GIS & SPATIAL LOGISTIC MODEL——A CASE STUDY FOR LONGGANG, SHENZHEN

In urban expansion research,various models are used to explore datasets and to test the hypotheses between the urban expansion scenario and social-economic,institutional and environmental variables.Many researches about the urban expansion have argued the importance of macro and micro factors.Nevertheless,consideration about their different active ways in one analysis is often lacking.Based on the analysis of the different effect patterns between macro and micro factors,the objective of this paper is to construct an urban expansion predictive statistical model with two sub-models.One is optimal combination of nonnegative weights model,to explore the quantity of land required in urban expansion.Another is spatial logistical model,to explore the land spatial distribution of the land requirement forecasted in model one.For an urban expansion study in Longgang,a district of Shenzhen,the two-sub model is presented for urban expansion forecasting.The results show that,in urban expansion forecast model,it's feasible and valuable to consider the different effect patterns between micro and macro factors.