我国出口退税政策的贸易与经济效应研究——基于局部均衡模型的分析

通过将出口退税政策变量纳入局部均衡COMPAS模型,从产业层面上分析出口退税政策如何影响进出口行业的产出、贸易、收益等经济指标,并利用中国纺织服装品对美国出口贸易的有关数据,实证模拟中国出口退税政策变化对中美两国纺织业的生产、贸易和收入的影响。结果表明:平均而言,出口退税率每提高1个百分点,中国纺织品出口美国的价格将大约下降0.93%,而中国纺织品对美国出口量将增加2.86%左右,全行业收入大约增加1.83%;而美国纺织行业的产出减少1.9%,全行业收入减少2.2%。

Trade and Economic Effects of China's Export Tax Rebates: A Research Based on Partial Equilibrium Model

Based on recently developed commercial policy analysis system (COMPAS) model, this paper analyses how export tax rebates affect production, export flows and welfare of related countries at the industry level. With data of textiles production and trade between China and US in 2007-2008, we simulate the trade effects, output effects and welfare effects of China′s export tax rebates with the modified COMPAS model. The results show that when China′s textile export tax rebates rise by 1 percent, the price of China′s textiles exported to US will decrease 0.93%, the China′ textiles export flow to US will increase 2.86%, the income of China will increase 1.83%. Meanwhile, the output of the US textile will decrease 1.9%, the income of the US textile industry will decrease 2.2%.