人民币汇率变动对云南-澜湄国家出口贸易的影响

云南是中国和澜湄合作的交汇点和进入东南亚市场的契入点。近年来，云南省对澜湄国家的出口额逐年增长。利用2002—2019年的相关数据，建立自回归分布滞后-误差修正模型(ARDL-ECM)进行实证分析，探讨人民币汇率变动对云南对澜湄国家出口贸易额的影响。研究结果表明：长期来看，人民币汇率上升会促进云南出口澜湄国家的贸易，短期来看，人民币汇率的影响并不显著；对于不同国家而言，人民币贬值会减少云南对越南的出口贸易额，对其他的国家影响并不显著。

The Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Export Trade of Yunnan-Lancang-Mekong Countries

Yunnan is the intersection point of China and Lancang-Mekong Cooperation and the entry point to the Southeast Asian market. In recent years, the export volume of Yunnan province to Lancang-Mekong countries has been increasing year by year. Based on relevant data from 2002 to 2019, ARDL-ECM model is established for empirical analysis to discuss the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the export volume of Yunnan to Lancang-Mekong Countries. The results show that in the long run, the rise of RMB exchange rate will promote yunnan''s export trade to Lancang-Mekong Countries. In the short term, the impact of the renminbi exchange rate is insignificant. For different countries, RMB depreciation reduces the export volume of Yunnan to Vietnam, while the impact of other countries is not significant.