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Measuring and forecasting retail trade in real time using card transactional data
Authors:Juan R García  Matías Pacce  Tomasa Rodrigo  Pep Ruiz de Aguirre  Camilo A Ulloa
Abstract:We build big data retail trade indicators for Spain using high-dimensional card transaction data from one of the country’s biggest banks. The resulting indicators replicate the dynamics of the Spanish retail trade indices (RTI), regional RTIs (Spain’s autonomous regions), and RTI by retailer type (distribution classes) released by the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The new indicators not only have a higher frequency (daily data) and higher geographical and sectorial breakdown but are also shown to improve nowcasting and forecasting power for the official RTI, making them key variables to monitor consumption.
Keywords:Retail sales  Big data  Electronic payments  Consumption  Structural time series model
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