A Quantitative Assessment of the Effect of First Contract Arbitration on Bargaining Relationships

This article investigates first contract arbitration's (FCA) capacity to foster bargaining relationships and deter misconduct by analyzing its effect on decertifications. Using time‐series cross‐sectional (TSCS) analysis with data from nine Canadian provinces over a four‐decade period, it shows: (1) FCA correlates with 20 to 37 percent fewer decertifications in provinces that have an FCA provision relative to those that do not; (2) of the various types of FCA, the automatic and fault forms have the most robust effect on decertifications while the mediation‐arbitration form may have the largest effect on decertifications; and (3) the effect of FCA is heightened in the presence of card‐check certification such that the best results for fostering bargaining relationships may be found in the presence of both policies.