The Impact of Climate Change on China＇s Grain Market and Food Security-- A CGE Model Approach

This paper examines the impact of climate change on China＇s grain production and food security. The research is one of the four studies on future conditions of China＇s food production system under the influence of climate change using numerical simulation methods, carried out under a national 973 project entitled ＂impacts of climate change on food systems in China and its adaptation＂. The other three studies focus on changes in cultivated land area and food production, while this study incorporates their grain yield results into a general equilibrium model to simulate future conditions of the grain market. Our simulation analysis arrives at the impact of climate change by comparing such economic variables as grain production, consumption, and GDP growth rate between a baseline scenario and two climate change scenarios. Our results are summarized as follows： （1） In 2050, the total grain production will reach 689.683 million tons--584.264 million tons of total grain consumption and 42.808 million tons of exports. Without considering losses and inventory demand, in 2050 China＇s grain supply and demand will remain well balanced, with a slight surplus expected. （2） Climate change is expected to benefit China＇s macro economy and individual sectors. In comparison with the baseline scenario of no climate change, real wage, real GDP, investment, household consumption, exports, and other macroeconomic indicators will rise under the climate change scenarios. As far as the agricultural, manufacturing, and service sectors are concerned, production, consumption, imports, and exports will each be favorably affected by climate change. （3） The favorable impact of climate change on China＇s macroeconomy and individual sectors under the high emissions scenario （A2） is stronger than that under the low emissions scenario （B2）. （4） In the grain market, climate change is expected to increase supply, reduce imports, increase supply, and demand; and supply will increase more than demand does. All in