技术进步影响就业结构的实证研究——基于中国行业数据的分析

在考察行业就业结构的现状基础上，通过协整分析和误差项的修正，分析了技术进步对中国行业就业结构的影响。实证分析表明，技术进步在短期内对各个行业就业影响并不显著，长期中技术进步对农林牧渔业、批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业、租赁和商务服务业、居民服务和其他服务业的就业有负的影响，对于其它行业均有正的影响，说明技术进步在促进生产力增长的同时，有利于行业间就业结构的调整和扩大就业。因此，我国需要加快技术进步，同时要选择适应产业及行业结构变化的先进技术进行应用。

An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of the Technological Progress on the Employment Patterns in China

The paper analyses the influence of the technological progress on the employment structure in China based on the investigation＇of the status of the employment patterns and the cointegration analysis and error-correction. The empirical analysis shows that technological progress doesnt have a notable influence on the employment in different industries in a short term, while in a long term, it has a negative impact on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, wholesale and retail trades, hotels and catering services, leasing and business services, resident services and other services, but has a positive impact on other industries. The results show that technological progress can promote productivity growth and at the same time benefit the restructuring of employment between industries and expand employment. Consequently, China needs to speed up technological progress, and apply the appropriate advanced technology to adapt to the changes of industry structure.