刘易斯拐点到来会抬高通货膨胀水平吗

刘易斯拐点是工业化发展进程中,劳动力供给由无限转为有限,劳动力价格随之上涨的时间点。部分学者认为,我国刘易斯拐点的到来,将通过推高工资水平带来物价水平的整体提升。本文通过对二十世纪中叶以后经过快速的工业化发展、走过刘易斯拐点的日本、韩国、新加坡三个国家的通货膨胀水平和实际工资水平进行实证分析,研究发现实际工资上涨并不一定能够推高整体物价水平,中国的情况也是如此,此轮通货膨胀主要由原材料价格上涨、市场流动性过剩引起,需要及时转变经济发展方式,加快经济结构转型,并尽快建立多层次资本市场,丰富融资渠道。

Lewis Turning Point and the Inflation in China

Lewis turning point is the very time point in an economy that labor supply turns from surplus to shortage in a country’s industrialization process.Some economists argued that inflation throughout the country is inevitable due to the rise of labor cost caused by China’s passing through Lewis turning point.By an empirical analysis, this paper draws a conclusion to that the rising of real income of labor doesn’t necessarily push up the price level.So is China’s condition.The inflation through out China recent years is the result of some combined factors,the excess liquidity and the rising of raw material prices in dominant.Furthermore,the paper discusses some resolutions to the condition such as the transformation of economic structure,the broadening of financial channels and the industrial structure adjustment.