基于汇率错位视角的人民币汇率制度转换概率研究

本文基于汇率错位的视角,运用二元模型对东南亚6国汇率错位幅度与汇率制度转换概率的关系进行实证分析。在此基础上,对人民币汇率制度的转换概率进行研究。得出结论:人民币汇率水平的高低与汇率制度的稳定性有很强的关系,即人民币汇率错位幅度与汇率制度转换概率呈现明显的正相关关系。汇率错位是汇率制度转换的原因,汇率错位幅度越大,汇率制度转换的概率越大。因此,若要维持人民币汇率制度的稳定,保持人民币汇率水平的基本稳定至关重要。就当前来说,人民币汇率制度发生转换的概率不大。

Study of RMB Exchange Rate Regime Transition Probability Based on the Perspective of Exchange Rate Misalignment

Based on the perspective of exchange rate misalignment,this paper empirically studies the relationship of exchange rate misalignment and exchange rate regime transition probability of six countries of Southeastern A- sia by using binary Logit model.Then analyzes RMB exchange rate regime transition probability,and draws the conclusion:there is an obvious positive relationship between RMB exchange rate level and stability of the ex- change rate regime.And exchange rate misalignment is the cause of exchange rate regime transition.In other words,the bigger exchange rate misalignment is,the bigger exchange rate regime transition probability is. Therefore,maintaining RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level is the key factor to keep RMB exchange rate regime stability.Currently RMB exchange rate regime transition probability is small.