The art and science of forecasting An assessment and future directions |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang 453007, China;2. Infrared Optoelectronic Science and Technology Key Laboratory of Henan Province, Xinxiang 453007, China;1. School of Environment Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, PR China;2. Forestry College of Beihua University, Jilin 132013, PR China;1. National Engineering Laboratory for Next Generation Internet Access System, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China;2. College of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China;1. Department of Architecture for Intelligence, The Institute of Scientific and Industrial Research, Osaka University, Japan;2. Department of Oral Physiology, Graduate School of Dentistry, Osaka University, Japan;3. Department of Restorative Dentistry and Endodontology, Graduate School of Dentistry, Osaka University, Japan |
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| Abstract: | After several decades of important theoretical developments, practical experience gained through applications, and the findings of many empirical studies the field of forecasting is entering into a stage of maturity. The purpose of this paper is to assess its performance, evaluate its accomplishments, point out its shortcomings, propose directions for future research as well as ways of improving its usefulness and relevance. A major objective of this paper is to stimulate discussion. The author, being also editor of this journal, believes that the current debate going on within the field is necessary and useful. Problems facing the field must be identified and accepted before solutions can be found. Maturity can only come through some form of consensus among the researchers and practitioners in the field. Alternative opinions and proposals to those expressed in this paper are invited. Practitioners are particularly welcome to join the debate. |
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