西部地区物流业对经济增长的经验分析

物流业的发展和地区经济的发展之间存在着相互促进的关系。文章选取西部地区GDP及货运周转量指标，通过对其建立计量模型展开系统的研究，揭示了区域物流业与区域经济之间的内在经济关系，即它们之间是一种长期均衡的关系（协整分析）：并在此基础上计算货运周转量单位增长所带来的区域GDP的增长的弹性值；最后，建立ARIMA模型对2007-2010年中国西部地区货运周转量进行预测：

Empirical Analysis on the Western Area Logistics to Economic Growth

The logistics development and the local economy's development has the relations which promotes mutually.This paper selects western area GDP and the freight Ton-kilometers,through researching its establishment econometrics model,has promulgated between the region logistics and the regional economies internal economy relations,namely between them is one kind of long-term balanced relations,and calculates the region GDP growth elastic value which the freight transportation volume of the circular flow unit grows brings;Finally,establishes the ARIMA model to carry on the forecast to 2007-2010 year China western area freight transportation volume of the circular flow.