中欧贸易对双方经济和就业的影响分析

本文考虑到中欧贸易的特点,分别利用中国反映加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出模型和欧盟一般非竞争型投入产出模型,分析了2002年和2007年中欧贸易对中国和欧盟增加值和就业的影响;利用结构分解技术(SDA)分析了其随时间的变化的原因。分析发现中欧贸易对中国增加值和就业的总体拉动作用要远大于对欧盟增加值和就业的拉动,其对增加值的拉动效率却小于欧盟,另外双边贸易对中国增加值的拉动效率随时间而提高,但对中国就业和欧盟增加值和就业的拉动效率则在不断降低。文章同时对中欧贸易顺差进行了重新审视,发现利用出口增加值方法,中欧贸易顺差减少了9%-10%。

The Impact of Sino-EU Trade on Bilateral Economy and Employment

This paper estimated value added and employment for China and EU generated by Sino-EU trade in 2002 and 2007 respectively,using non-comparative input-output model capturing processing trade of China and general non-comparative input-output model of EU.The article also analyzed the change of bilateral trade’s impact and its main causes by employing Structural Decomposition Analysis.The estimates witnessed that the bilateral trade brought much more value added and employment to China than to EU.However,as for value added generated by per unit export,it was much less for China than that for EU.Over time,value added efficiency of bilateral trade for China had increased,while employment efficiency had decreased.For EU,both value added efficiency and employment efficiency had decreased.The paper also found that surplus of Sino-EU trade has decreased by 9%-10% when employing export value-added strategy.