供求冲击与人民币汇率的波动：基于DSGE两国模型的模拟分析

为分析人民币汇率的波动，本文应用当前新开放经济学主流的动态随机一般均衡两国模型的研究方法，通过引入垄断竞争的市场结构和粘性的价格调整方式，模拟了在以技术冲击为代表的供给冲击和以货币冲击为代表的需求冲击下汇率的波动，进而用来拟合人民币汇率的波动。结果表明相对于需求冲击，供给冲击对人民币汇率波动的拟合比较好，这表明“巴拉萨-萨缪尔森”效应是解释和预测人民币汇率波动的合理途径，也给我国的人民币汇率稳定政策提供了明确的导向。

Supply & Demand Shocks and the Fluctuations of RMB Exchange Rate:Analysis Based on the Simulation of a DSGE Two-Country Model

To study the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) two-country model, and together with the assumptions of monopolistic competition market structure and sticky price, we simulates the exchange rate fluctuations on the condition of supply shocks represented by technology shock and demand shocks represented by money shock, we then apply this model to simulate RMB exchange rate fluctuations. We find that compared with demand shock, however, supply shock is better in explaining fluctuations in RMB exchange rate, which indicates that the “Balassa-Samuelson” effect would be right way to explain and forecast the fluctuations of RMB exchange rate, and it also shows how to keep the RMB exchange rate at its equilibrium level.