人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响

人工智能技术的快速发展正催生第四次工业革命,可能引发全球价值链深度重构和世界经贸格局重大变革。世界主要经济强国将发展人工智能技术作为争夺新一轮产业竞争优势的重要战略抓手。本文基于全球价值链视角研究人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响,我们发现人工智能技术变革可能推动国际贸易规模扩大,提升服务贸易份额,并促进国际贸易交易模式平台化、小宗化,可为中小企业创造更多参与国际贸易的机会。然而,人工智能技术变革也可能通过降低企业劳动力需求从而对我国等发展中国家的出口拉动型增长模式造成严重的潜在威胁。为应对人工智能技术变革,我国应部署并强化对人工智能产业发展的政策支持,加快培育制造业国际竞争新优势,大力推动先进制造业与现代生产性服务业深度融合发展,全面促进"中国制造"攀升全球价值链中高端。

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technological Revolution on International Trade

The rapid development of artificial intelligence(AI) technology is giving birth to the fourth industrial revolution, which may bring about deep reconstruction of global value chains(GVCs) and major changes in the world economy and trade patterns. Therefore, the major economic powers have regarded developing AI technology as an important strategic measure for enhancing the advantages of a new round of industrial competition. This paper investigates the impact of AI technological revolution on international trade from the perspective of GVCs. We find that AI technological revolution may boost the expansion of international trade scale, increase the share of service trade, and promote the platformization and miniaturization of the international trade transaction patterns to create more trade opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs). However, we also find that AI technological revolution may pose serious potential threat to export-led growth model of developing countries like China by reducing the labor demand of enterprises. In order to cope with the AI technological revolution, China should deploy and strengthen policy support for the development of AI industry, accelerate the cultivation of new manufacturing competitive advantages, boost the in-depth integration of advanced manufacturing and modern producer services, and comprehensively promote China’s manufacturing industry to step into the middle-and-high-end of GVCs.