Chicago board call options as predictors of common stock price changes

The intent in this study is to determine, using response surface methodology, whether call option prices can be relied upon to predict future rises in common stock prices. If call option prices are bid up by insiders prior to the time that new information becomes available to stock traders, recognition of this price action could form the basis of a stock trading strategy yielding returns superior to buy and hold. Evidence of such an advantage would be inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis.