中国地方土地财政收入增长影响因素实证研究——基于1995-2008年中国省际面板数据的分析

文章运用面板数据模型考察了中国省际土地财政收入①增长的影响因素,分别利用动态效应模型和阈值效应模型进行了估计,探究各因素在空间和时间发生变化时的影响规律。研究表明,各因素在不同时间、不同阈值效应下对土地财政收入的影响不尽相同:土地财政收入增长具有明显的路径依赖特征,前期的增长会形成惯性而影响后期的增长;一个地区财政压力较大、事权和财权不平衡程度加深、房价上涨会导致该地区土地财政收入增长,但随着经济发展和产业结构变化,这些影响又会有所不同。因此,财税体制改革需要充分考虑地区经济发展和产业结构的差异性,在不同发展程度的地区采用不同的措施。

Empirical Study on Influential Factors of Local Land Financial Revenue Growth in China:Analysis Based on Inter-province Panel Data from 1995 to 2008

This paper analyzes the influential factors of local land financial revenue growth in China based on inter-province panel data model and employs dynamic effect model and threshold effect model to estimate the influential factors.Then it explores the influential rules under the changes in space and time.The results are shown as follows: firstly,the effects of influential factors on land financial revenue vary with the time and threshold effects;secondly,the land financial revenue growth is significantly characterized by route dependence and the early growth will affect the latter growth owing to the inertia;thirdly,bigger financial pressure,a more serious imbalance between executive power and financial power and increasing housing prices in a region give rise to local land financial revenue growth,and these effects differ as local economic development and industrial structures change.Therefore,the reform of financial and tax system should fully take account of the differences of local economic development and industrial structures and take measures in regions consistent with their development levels.