城市化进程与服务业发展对经济拉动作用的实证分析

文章通过对计量模型的分析,使用1983～2009年城市化、服务业综合发展以及人均GDP等的数据,运用Johansen协整、Granger因果检验,脉冲响应函数等计量方法对三个指标之间的关系进行实证检验。实证结果表明服务业发展和经济增长之间相互促进,经济增长带动城市化水平提高,但城市化水平对经济增长作用不明显,并进一步分析了在长期过程中经济增长对城市化水平、服务业发展的冲击响应。最后针对我国现状,提出相应的政策建议。

The Empirical Analysis of Effect City Changes Process and Development of Service Industry on the Economic Growth

This paper uses 1983~2009 GDP of year of average per capita,city is changed,and the service industry comprehensive development and other related data,through econometric model analysis.This paper uses Johansen cointegration,Granger causality test,impulse response function method of measurement on three indicators of the relationship between empirical test.The empirical results show that the development of service industry and the economic growth between promote each other,drive economic growth the city changes a level to rise,but the city changes a level to economic growth is not obvious,and further analysis of the long process of the economic growth on the level of development of service industry in City,shock response.According to the present situation of our country,put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.