中国中部六省的碳排放趋势研究

采用王铮等人提出的中国碳排放预估模型,测算在经济平稳增长条件下,中部六省未来的能源碳排放趋势,考虑了6省未来水泥工业的碳排放,并采用CO2FIX模型计算各省森林碳汇量,从而得出各省的净碳排放量,为各省制定碳排放战略提供参考。结果显示：各省的能源碳排放量都呈现先增长后下降的倒U型特征,能源碳排放高峰出现的先后顺序分别是河南、湖南、山西、安徽、江西、湖北;6个省份水泥工业的碳排放都呈现不断增长的趋势,水泥工业产生的碳排放量最大的是河南,最小的是山西;累计森林碳汇量最大的是江西省,其次是湖南省,河南省最小;各省应在减少能源碳排放的同时,控制水泥工业产生的碳排放,积极增加森林碳汇,从多方入手减少碳排放。

Prediction on Carbon Emission in Six Provinces of China

The article discusses the method of predicting the region’s Carbon emissions.Adopting the optimal growth model,this paper computes energy Carbon emissions of six provinces of China.Taking into account of Carbon emissions caused in cement production and forest Carbon sink calculated by CO2FIX model,we get the net carbon emissions to offer references for each province when making Carbon emissions strategy.The results show that energy Carbon emissions of each province increase as inverted"U"curve.The order of energy Carbon emissions peak emerged are Henan,Hunan,Shanxi,Anhui,Jiangxi,Hubei.The cement industry’s Carbon emissions in six provinces have shown a growing trend,the maximum is Henan and the minimum is Shanxi.As to forest Carbon sinks Jiangxi province is the largest,followed by Hunan province,Henan province is the smallest.Each province should control Carbon emissions generated by the cement industry while reducing energy Carbon emissions,positively enhance forest Carbon sinks,reduce Carbon emissions in many ways.