山东省县域经济发展的时空动态研究

以109个县（市）为基本单元，从经济发展水平、发展活力和发展潜力三方面进行县域经济综合发展水平评价，并应用ESDA等分析法揭示1990-2008年山东省县域经济的时空动态。结果表明：山东经济快速发展，县域经济差异先扩大再缩小，但整体变化幅度较小；城市辖区的发展速度明显快于其它地区，平原区经济发展缓慢；鲁东和鲁中地区的经济发展水平高、提升速度快，经济发展重心向东北部偏移；县市经济发展空间自相关显著，高一高集聚区集中分布在山东半岛，低一低集聚区主要分布在鲁西南黄淮平原区和鲁中南山地丘陵区，东西差异仍是导致山东省内经济差异的主要因素。

The Temporal and Spatial Change of Economic Development at County Level in Shandong Province

Regional economic disparity has long been an interesting topic of academic research on regional development economics in every country.Based on economic development statistic data of 109 counties in Shandong province in 1990~2008,this paper selects 15 economic indicators,and constructs index system to evaluate the county economic strength by using factor analysis method,and carries out a preliminary study on spatial-temporal pattern of the county level economies.Some conclusions of this study are summarized as follows:(1) Economic strength has been improved in all counties during 1990 and 2008,and the total economic disparities of county level in Shandong province have enlarged then decreased.(2) The economic development index has a strong spatial autocorrelation and the regional economic difference will increase in the future.The economic formation in Shandong province is "two peaks and two valleys" from east to west,and the economic strength of districts is stronger than that of surrounding counties;There is extreme disparity of the regional economic development at county level,and the counties with higher economic index are clustered in eastern and central Shandong province while the counties with lower economic index are concentrated in western and southern part.The low-level and low-growth poverty trap assemble areas appear in the boundary of Shandong province,Hebei province,Henan province,Jiangsu province and Anhui province.