土地财政与最优城市规模

土地是有限的,完全依靠土地收入的发展模式是不可持续的。本文主要考察土地财政作为地方政府的一种融资渠道,城市建设用地规模的使用是否与城市人口规模的增加相协调,是否存在过度扩张城市面积促进地区经济发展的现象。为了分析土地出让收入(地租)、公共品供给以及城市规模之间的关系,本文以乔治亨利定理为基础,并引入林达尔均衡条件建立起最优城市人口密度理论模型。采用1999～2009年31个省面板数据对中国城市成本收益模型进行计量分析,结果表明全国26个省低于估算的最优城市人口密度,验证了中国存在城市面积的扩张与人口的增加不协调发展的情况。

Land Finance and Optimal City Size

Land is finite,so relying on land -related revenues is not sustainable for development.The main purpose of this article is to examine the land finance as a financing channel of local government,whether urban construction land use assort with urban population growth,and whether exist phenomenon of over - expansion in city size to boost regional economy. In order to analyze relationship between the land transfer revenues(land rent),the supply of public goods and city size,this article base on the Henry George theorem,and refer to the Lindahl equilibrium to establish the theoretical model of optimal urban population density.Using econometric analysis of 1999 to 2009 period and 31 provincial panel data to urban cost - benefit model,the result show that 26 provinces in China are lower than estimated optimal urban population density,and further verify the existence of uncoordinated development in city area and population increasing.