基于空间的省际农地非农化驱动因素研究

运用空间面板模型,选取我国31个省市自治区1999—2008年农地非农化及其影响因素的数据构建不同的计量模型。运用Moran’sI指数测度出我国农地非农化与其影响因素作用关系的空间效应为一种趋同效应,省际间农地非农化存在正的空间相关关系。根据空间滞后模型和空间误差模型估计结果,通过对比得出,地区总人口、城镇人均可支配收入、地方政府收益、城市化水平、耕地资源禀赋对农地非农化存在显著的正向驱动作用,农村居民人均纯收入与农地非农化间存在负相关关系,农地保护政策对农地非农化的控制效果并不明显。

An Analysis for the Driving Factors of Agricultural Land Conversion in China Based on Spatial Econometric

The paper uses the MoranI Index to measure the agricultural land conversion and its influencing factors.Based on the results of the Spatial Lag Model and the Spatial Error Model,and by comparison,the paper comes to find that regional total population,urban per capita disposable income,local government income,level of urbanization,land resource endowments are significantly positively related with the agricultural land conversion while there is negative correlation between the per capita net income of rural residents and the agricultural land conversion.