基于ESDA的江苏省县域经济发展空间模式解析

利用1988—2009年江苏省县域人均GDP数据,基于邻接和距离规则定义空间权重矩阵,采用ESDA全局和局部空间关联分析方法,对江苏省县域经济发展的空间发展模式进行了研究。结果表明：在基于邻接规则的空间关联模式分析下,江苏省县域经济发展的空间相互联系强度可划分为四个阶段：①1988—1993年,苏南与苏中、苏北空间差异并不显著;②1994—1996年,全省经济布局极化现象显著增强;③1997—2003年,极化现象有所缓解;④2004—2008年,苏南与苏中、苏北区域经济差距进一步拉大。在基于距离规则的空间关联模式分析下,初步推断江苏省县域经济之间正的空间关联性影响范围在240 km之内。苏南经济的快速发展对沿江地带经济起到了较大的推动作用,但沿海地区的经济发展在2009年前还有很大改观,还需要进一步挖掘和带动。

Identification of Spatial Economic Structure in Jiangsu Province by Applying Exploratory Spatial Data Statistics

The feasibility of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) in analyzing regional economic disparities is firstly explored in this paper.Then,we use ESDA method to investigate the spatial economic structure at the county level in Jiangsu from 1988 to 2009.Both global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis strategies based on the rules of rook contiguity and arc distance contiguity spatial weights are used during the investigation.The analysis results based on the rules of rook contiguity spatial weights show that the evolution of Jiangsu spatial-economic organization can be discriminated as four stages: ①From 1988 to 1992,the disparity of regional economy was not significant.②From 1993 to 1996,the county-level spatial disparities of regional economy had significant effect between southern and northern Jiangsu.③From 1997 to 2002,the polarization effect remitted to a certain extent for whole province.④From 2003 to 2008,there was a huge gap of regional economy between northern and southern Jiangsu.Moreover,according to the analysis results based on the rules of arc distance spatial weights,the range of spatial-economic influence in Jiangsu is observed less than 240 km,which indicates that the growing-up of southern Jiangsu only has significant effect on the regions along the Yangtze River other than the coastal areas.There is a need to pay more attention to develop the coastal areas and reduce the county-level regional differences in Jiangsu.