基本公共服务—城镇化—区域经济耦合协调发展时空演化

基于系统科学视角,构建了基本公共服务—城镇化—区域经济耦合协调评价指标体系,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、地理探测器等方法对2008—2017年我国31个省(市、区)(不包括中国港澳台地区)的基本公共服务—城镇化—区域经济耦合协调发展时空演化特征及其影响因素与驱动机制进行研究。结果表明:①基本公共服务质量与城镇化质量、区域经济质量的发展变化特征之间具有一定关联性,基本公共服务质量滞后于其它两个子系统发展,且滞后期大约为2年;②2008—2017年,我国各省(市、区)基本公共服务—城镇化—区域经济耦合协调发展关系总体比较稳定,且耦合协调度空间分异明显;③从风险因子探测结果来看,人均GDP、城镇单位就业人员、人均地方财政收入、货物进出口总额是三大系统耦合协调发展空间分异的主要影响因素,从因子交互探测结果来看,双因子交互作用要强于单独因子作用;④我国基本公共服务—城镇化—区域经济耦合协调发展时空演化是由基础设施支撑力、资源集聚力、经济拉动力、政府调控力、市场推动力、社会促进力等多元驱动机制综合作用的结果。

Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Coupling and Coordinated Development of Basic Public Services-Urbanization-Regional Economy

Based on the perspective of system science,this paper constructed a coupling coordination evaluation index system of basic public service-urbanization-regional economy.Entropy method,coupling coordination model,geographical detector and other methods were used to study the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics,influencing factors and driving mechanism of the coupling and coordinated development of basic public service-urbanization-regional economy in 31 provinces of China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan in China)from 2008 to 2017.The results show that:1)There is a certain correlation between the development and evolution characteristics of basic public service quality,urbanization quality and regional economic quality.The quality of basic public service lags behind the development of the other two subsystems,and the lag period is about 2 years;2)From 2008 to 2017,the coupling and coordinated development relationship between basic public services,urbanization and regional economy in China’s provinces and cities is generally stable,and the coupling and coordinated degree is obviously different in space;3)From the risk factor detection results,per capita GDP,urban unit employment personnel,per capita local financial income and total import and export of goods are the main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of the coupling and coordinated development of the three systems.From the factor interaction detection results,the interaction effect of two factors is stronger than that of single factors;4)The spatio-temporal evolution of the coupling and coordinated development of basic public services,urbanization and regional economy in China is the result of the comprehensive function of multiple driving mechanisms,such as infrastructure supporting force,resource gathering force,economic pulling force,government regulation force,market driving force and social promoting force.