中美集装箱航运网络格局演化与脆弱性评估

中美两国有着非常紧密的航运贸易联系,中美贸易战引发了人们对中美集装箱航运网络和航运贸易的再思考。基于中美集装箱航运贸易数据、中美航线O-D数据和全球18家船公司的航线数据,采用随机和蓄意攻击两种方式对航运网络进行攻击,通过网络平均度、聚类系数、孤立节点比例、平均路径长度等特征值变化来衡量中美集装箱航运网络脆弱性变化并结合中美贸易数据分析重要港口的影响。结果表明:1995—2017年,中美集装箱航运网络结构呈现出单中心—三中心—多中心的转变;蓄意攻击节点数为7个和22个时,网络开始崩溃和崩溃成诸多子网络;奥克兰港的失效对上海港的影响最大,纽约港和长滩港的失效造成深圳港的平均变化率较大;釜山港、新加坡港、东京港、巴生港和曼萨尼约港等中介港口对中美集装箱航运网络的正常运营至关重要。

The Assessment of Sino-US Container Shipping Network Evolution and vulnerability

The Sino-US trade war has brought many uncertainties to the Sino-US container shipping network.Under this circumstance,this paper adopt random attack and intentional attack to attack the Sino-US container shipping network and study its evolution and vulnerability changes,based on Sino-US shipping trade data,O-D data of Sino-US routes and route data of 18 shipping companies.The changes in the vulnerability of the Sino-US container shipping network are measured by the changes in the characteristic values such as network average degree,clustering coefficient,isolated-node proportion and network average shortest-path length,and the influences of important ports are analyzed by combining the Sino-US trade data.The results are as follows:1)the network structure demonstrates the transformation from single center,three centers,to multi centers,and gradually shifts from the Pearl river delta to the Yangtze river delta;2)in 2017,there are 312 shipping lines and 95 ports in the Sino-US shipping network,under the intentional attack,when the number of attack nodes is 7 and 22,the network begins to collapse and collapses into many sub-networks,separately,so the top 22 ports play an important role in the connectivity of Sino-US container shipping network;3)in terms of the impact on Chinese ports,the attack on the port of Auckland has the greatest impact on Shanghai Port,and the attack on the port of New York and Long Beach has resulted in a large average change rate of Shenzhen port;4)the intermediary ports such as Busan Port,Singapore Port,Tokyo Port,Bashan Port and Manzanillo Port play a vital role in the Sino-US container shipping network.Finally,we propose corresponding countermeasures to strengthen the construction of Sino-us container shipping network.Overall,this study provides a theoretical reference for government decision-making departments to formulate policies and port and liner companies to formulate port planning and set up routes.