Measuring and modelling risk in a naturalistic setting

Two studies were undertaken to investigate risk perception in a military context. A questionnaire elicited cadets’ (n = 136) ratings of three categories of critical incidents (threats, constraints, and suffering among civilians) on nine qualitative risk dimensions adapted from the ‘Psychometric risk paradigm’ along with perceived personal risk, general risk, security and anticipated anxiousness. Factor analyses of average responses to the nine dimensions revealed two components: dread and new risk, the former strongly correlated with anticipated anxiousness and perceived personal and general risk. In a prospective survey, peacekeepers in Kosovo (n = 766) reported frequencies of exposure to threats, constraints, and suffering among civilians, and rated their personal risk of injury, the general risk and their trust in security relative to the peacekeeping operation. The fitness of a path model relating risk perception to risk exposure was estimated with reference to data collected after two, four and six months of deployment. Results were systematic across measurements and fit-indices in suggesting support for the model. The results confirm and extend findings from previous studies on risk perception by showing the impact of both risk characteristics (qualitative dimensions) and actual risk exposure (frequencies) on subjective risk perceptions.