Prospects for Japanese-Russian trade expansion in the second half of the 1990s

During the Soviet period, trade between the USSR and Japan was relatively unimportant, constituting approximately 2 percent of the Soviet Union's total foreign trade turnover. The composition of trade goods, moreover, was primitive. The USSR exported unprocessed raw materials in exchange for high value added industrial products. This paper examines the impact of Russia's fledgling transition on its trade with Japan and finds some hopeful developments. Although the volume of trade has contracted, Russian exports are reviving, the commodity structure is adjusting appropriately to changes in relative prices, and embodied factor content is import-capital-intensive as required by the Leontief variant of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The primary cloud blighting this performance is Russia's continuing inability to export its industrial goods.