惯性困局：固定汇率制度改革之难题

历史观察发现,尽管均衡汇率随着宏观经济变量不断变化,汇率制度的演变却是十分缓慢的。本文利用持续期模型研究布雷顿森林体系结束至2004年的跨国数据,发现固定汇率制度具有很强的惯性特征,一国退出固定汇率制度的概率随着时间的推移不断下降。进一步,这种效应对于发展中国家较之发达国家更强。因此,在经济转型过程中,即便灵活的浮动汇率制度具备更高的效率,长期存在的固定汇率安排也不会轻易被放弃。汇率制度改革同其他领域的制度改革一样,只是经济环境成熟还远远不够,更需要一些特别地契机。

Inertia Dilemma: The Problem of Exiting Fixed Exchange Rate Regime

Exchange rate regime is changing more slowly than equilibrium exchange rate. This paper uses the post Bretton Woods data and finds that fixed exchange rate regime has the same path-dependent feature as other institution variables, that is, the exit ratio of fixed exchange rate regime is decreasing as time goes on. Furthermore, the path-dependence feature is more evident in the developing countries. Therefore, in the process of development, fixed exchange rate regime would be more preferred even if a float regime will be more effective.