克鲁格曼的疑惑与一种理论解答

汇率是复杂的经济变量,综合克鲁格曼关于汇率问题的观点,提出了"克鲁格曼的疑惑"问题。从汇率的抽象形式、行为模式、工具形式三方面作了理论解答:汇率是社会—政治—经济多因素相互作用的一种综合变量;汇率的行为模式表现为非线性、非中性、非均衡特性,总体综合为经济系统的策略变量;汇率是各国在国际交往中用来调节经济———政治关系,集中体现国家利益而自然作为国家竞争战略的变量工具。实际汇率的本质更多地表征为策略行为,而市场自动决定的状态行为则退而居次,均衡汇率等价于均衡策略汇率。

Krugman' s Dilemma and a Theoretical Explanation

Exchange rate is a complicated economic variable.Integrating Krugman’s viewpoints on exchange rate,this paper puts forward the issue of "Krugman’s Dilemma".A theoretical explanation is provided from three dimensions.Exchange rate is a comprehensive variable interacting with social-political-economic factors;while behavior pattern of exchange rate manifests non-neutrality,nonlinearity,non-equilibrium,and it synthesizes as a strategic variable of economic system generally.Exchange rate adjusts economic-political relationship among nations in international associations and exchange rate is a variable instrument of national competitive strategy.The essence of real exchange rate indicates strategic behavior,while the status behavior which is determined by market itself retreats to the second place,and the equilibrium exchange rate is equivalent to the equilibrium strategic exchange rate.