中国人口、家庭户与住房需求预测研究

我国未来住房需求的变化将受到人口、家庭户数量和结构变动的影响。在人口预测的基础上,采用扩展的户主率家庭预测模型,假定分家庭规模、户主年龄、性别的户主率不变或变化的情况下,预测未来家庭户的数量、结构情况。在此基础上,结合2000年普查得到的不同家庭户类型住房情况的信息,对未来30年我国城乡居民住房面积和间数的需求进行了预测。由于人口和家庭户的增长,我国居民住房面积和间数的需求在未来三十年将持续增长;由于家庭户数量增长速度超过人口数量增长的速度,按家庭户变化预测的未来居民住房的需求较大;由于人口和家庭户结构的变化,未来三十年的住房需求在不同时期的情况有所不同,年均新增住房需求的增长在2015年前虽波动起伏,但变化不大; 2015年之后,年均新增住房需求将逐步下降。

The Projection of Population, Households and Housing Demand in China

Housing demand in China is greatly determined by future population and household changes. Building on an extended headship rate model and combining with an independent population projection, future changes in household number and composition are projected, under different scenarios of future changes in headship rates by household size and age and sex of householders. Based on the projecting results of population and households, we forecast the demand of housing areas and rooms for the next 30 years. It shows that the demand for housing areas and rooms will grow steadily due to the increase of population and households. Because the increase of households will be faster than that of population, the housing demand is bigger when changes in household are considered than that when changes in population are considered. Moreover, housing demands will present various trends in different periods due to population and household compositional changes: the annual growth in housing demand will be quite stable in 2000-2015, but decline afterwards.