| 上市公司控制权转移预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔学刚,荆新. 上市公司控制权转移预测研究[J]. 会计研究, 2006, 0(1): 77-82 |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔学刚 荆新 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京工商大学会计学院,100037
2. 中国人民大学商学院,100872 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市哲学社会科学规划项目，北京市教委人文社科研究计划重点项目(Sz200410011003)的阶段性成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于我国的资本市场与制度环境,运用全样本研究思路,运用Logit回归技术,建立预测模型。预测模型能够较好地预测目标公司,并且具有令人满意的稳定度,说明我国上市公司控制权转移具有较好的可预测性,从而在一定程度上反映出我国资本市场效率尚达不到中强式有效状态。
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| 关 键 词： | 控制权转移 控制权转移预测模型 模型预测准确性 |
Research on Predicting Takeover Targets |
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| Cui Xuegang,Jing Xin. Research on Predicting Takeover Targets[J]. Accounting Research, 2006, 0(1): 77-82 |
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| Authors: | Cui Xuegang Jing Xin |
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| Abstract: | Based on Chinese capital market and institutions,this study empirically investigates the listed companies in China and builds a forecast model using Logit method.The results for the future forecast (the year of 2002 and 2003) indicate that the percentage of correct for 2002 is 75.7% and 64.4% for 2003.On the whole,for the future data,the comprehensive percentage of correct is 70.1%,the comprehensive sensitivity is 57.8% and the comprehensive specificity is 70.3%.The effect of prediction is very satisfying.Therefore this forecast model is helpful for investors and other related parties to make relevant decisions. |
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| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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