进口贸易结构与我国经济增长的实证研究

对1980-2005年我国工业制成品与初级产品进口与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。研究表明:工业制成品进口对我国经济增长有长期稳定的促进作用,初级产品进口则有抑制作用;我国初级产品的进口更多是由工业制成品进口带动的。据此,提出了对于我国工业制成品与初级产品进口的建议。

Empirical Study on the Structure of Imports and Economic Growth

Based on the annual data from 1980 to 2005 about the import of primary and industrial manufactured goods and GDP in China,this paper tries to analyze their effects by employing correlation analysis,unit root test,Johansen co-integration,Granger causality,error correction model,impulse responses and variance decomposition analysis methods. The empirical results show that industrial manufactured goods have a long-term positive effect upon economic growth while primary goods do the opposite; the leading force of the import of primary goods is the import of industrial manufactured goods but not economic growth. Accordingly,this paper puts forward advices on the import of primary and industrial manufactured goods.