美国对华遏制和贸易秩序再平衡:对2019年WTO的回顾

2019年WTO受到了中美之间相互博弈的影响,美国要保持对中国的竞争优势并决心全面改革WTO,WTO成员围绕发展中国家特殊与差别待遇和上诉机构问题展开了激烈争论。这些变化透视出在WTO和中国问题上,美国的政策愈加趋于强硬,也更加不顾及损害多边贸易体制。回顾2019年的WTO,本文认为美国对华贸易政策出现了两面性:一方面是通过传统施压迫使中国更加开放,另一方面是通过关闭部分美国市场促使美国与中国实现半脱钩。中美之间的矛盾或者战略竞争在短期内不会结束,WTO的发展将持续处在美国的压力之下,多边贸易体系的信誉和价值将继续处于风险之中,重要原因是美国的决策者们认为现行的WTO规则一直在助力中国崛起,而这同美国遏制中国的目标相冲突。美国的贸易政策正日益变得以遏制中国为导向而不是以其国内经济发展需要为导向。

How US Efforts to Contain China and Rebalance the International Trade Order to Shape the WTO in 2019

As never before,the WTO felt in 2019 the impact of the rivalry between the two world’s biggest members.The US tougher stance on China and determination to revamp the existing trade regime were the key causes for the abrasive discussions about special and differential treatment(SDT)among WTO members,as well as for the paralysis of the WTO Appellate Body,both triggered by the US in that year.Such developments are a reflex of a major tectonic shift happening at the global level,with the rise of an emerging power provoking strong reactions from the established one.They also reveal a new approach of the US towards the WTO and China at the WTO,one that is more aggressive towards its goals and more dismissive regarding the system.The paper argues that the US trade policy towards China is exhibiting dual characteristics—the traditional approach to compelling China to open its domestic markets and the brand-new disengagement approach.Given that the US-China rivalry is poised to extend over a period of time,this paper also believes that the WTO will continue to be under pressure,with significant risks for its credibility and relevance,as the perceptions of key decision-makers in Washington that WTO enables rather than contains China’s rise.Increasingly,the US trade policy is becoming China-oriented with minimal concerns about the real needs of the US domestic economy.