我国居民消费需求与社会保障水平的动态分析——基于中国19902009年经验数据

文章利用我国1990-2009年居民人均消费支出PCS和社会保障支出PPS数据，采用协整检验和误差修正模型等计量技术，检验社会保障水平对于居民消费的影响。在计量分析的基础上，认为拉动居民消费需求的关键在于完善社会保障制度、实现国民收入水平的持续稳定增加，增强国民的消费信心；同时还要扩宽社会保障基金的筹资渠道，加快重大民生工程建设，改善人们的消费预期，引导和促进居民扩大消费需求。

Dynamic Analysis of Consumer Demand and The Level of Social Security --Based on empirical data in 1990-2009

In this paper, using the 1990-2009 per capita consumption expenditure of PCS and social security expenditure PPS data, by the measurement techniques of cointegration tests and error correction model, tests the level of social security for the consumer. On the basis of quantitative analysis in this paper thinks that the key is to stimulate consumer demand to improve the social security system, to achieve sustained and steady increase of the level of national income, and enhance national consumer confidence; While expanding the finaneing channels of the Social Security Fund, to aceelerate the construction of a major livelihood projects to improve people＇s eonsumption is expected to guide and promote residents to expand consumer demand.