Estimating the Euler equation for output |
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Authors: | Jeffrey C. Fuhrer Glenn D. Rudebusch |
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Affiliation: | a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 600 Atlantic Avenue, Boston, MA 02106, USA b Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA |
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Abstract: | New Keynesian macroeconomic models have generally emphasized that expectations of future output are a key factor in determining current output. The theoretical motivation for such forward-looking behavior relies on a straightforward generalization of the well-known Euler equation for consumption. In this paper, we use maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments (GMM) methods to explore the empirical importance of output expectations. We find little evidence that rational expectations of future output help determine current output, especially after taking into account the small-sample bias in GMM. |
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Keywords: | C2 E1 |
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