基于West模型的房地产泡沫的实证研究--以北京、上海、深圳为例

本文简要回顾了关于房地产泡沫的研究框架,在West模型的基础上,运用房地产合理价格是租金资本化的原理,对北京、上海和深圳的房地产市场是否存在泡沫作了实证检验.结果表明:北京住宅市场、上海住宅市场以及深圳写字楼市场在样本期内的检验结果拒绝原假设,即市场存在着泡沫现象;北京写字楼市场、上海写字楼市场和深圳住宅市场检验结果为接受原假设,即不能判断市场存在泡沫现象.本文提出了一些政策建议.

Empirical Study on Real Estate Bubbles Based on West's Model-Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen as Examples

This paper reviews the research framework for real estate bubbles and conducts empirical study on whether there are real estate bubbles in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen guided by the principle that real estate price should be the rent capitalization based on West's model. The results show that speculative bubbles exist in Beijing residential market, Shanghai residential market and Shenzhen office market. However, there are no evidences for speculative bubbles in Beijing office market, Shanghai office market and Shenzhen residential market in the sampling period. Finally, we propose some policy recommendations.