养老保险与教育投资

目前我国地方政府面临着养老保险支出日趋增加的压力,这也给地方经济发展形成了一定阻力。因而地方政府不得不对财政支出进行调节,以满足地方经济发展的需要。教育支出虽然对经济当期的增长贡献不大,但却是经济长期发展的主要推动因素。在养老保险支出比例增加的形势下,地方政府是否会因此而减少教育投资比例是一个值得思考的问题。本文正是基于这种考虑,以2007-2011年我国31个省市自治区的面板数据为样本,从教育的正外部性以及对经济发展影响的角度分析了不同经济水平的地方政府的调控行为。结果显示养老保险支出对教育投资确实存在挤出效应,但对于不同经济水平地区挤出效应力度不同。教育的正外部性并没有较大的阻碍经济落后地区对教育的投资;教育对经济的促进作用是地方政府考虑是否减小教育投资比例的主要因素,这也促成了经济发达地区的减小幅度较大,而经济落后地区的减小幅度较小的结果。

Endowment Insurance and Education Investment

At present, the local government of China is facing the pressure of increasing endowment insurance, which forms a certain resistance for local economic development. Therefore the local government has to adjust fiscal expenditure, to meet the needs of local economic development. Although for the current period, education spending contributes a little to the economic growth, it is the main driving factor of the long - term economic development. Whether local government will reduce the education investment ratio as a result of the increasing endowment insurance cost ratio becomes the important aspect of whether local government pay attention to the long - term economic development. Based on this consideration, this paper uses the sample of 2007 -2011 panel data of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in our country to analysis the regulate behavior of local government in different economic levels from the positive externalities of education and education investment return. Results show that the endowment insurance really crowding out spending on education investment, but different lever for different economic region. The positive externalities of Education do no larger hinder economic backward area of education investment. The main factor to reduce education investment ratio depends on whether education can contribute to the government economic development. It also contributed to the result that economic developed area is larger, the other is smaller.