区域间劳动力迁移对经济增长和地区差距的影响

本文利用一个30区域可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,根据中国实际劳动力流动规模,并考虑了汇款、外地与本地劳动力工资差异、人口流动滞后于劳动力流动等多种因素,定量分析了区域间劳动力迁移的经济影响。结果显示,区域间劳动力迁移可以有效改善配置效率,提高经济增速缩小地区间生活水平差距,但由于在一国内部资本流动性很强,存在"资本追逐劳动"现象,因此并不能缩小人均GDP的地区差距。虽然劳动力迁移显著提高了输出的人均收入和消费水平,但单纯的劳动力输出并不能缩小同发达地区人均产出的差距。

The Effect of Inter-regional Migration on Economic Growth and Regional Disparity

Based on the 2002 China Regional Input-Output tables and other data from various sources,a 30 regions recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model(CGE)was founded to study the effect of inter-regional labor migration in China.This model has carefully taken into account of many migration characteristics in China,such as circular migration,population migration lagged with labor migration,large amount of cash transfer and so on.The simulation results show that inter-regional labor migration has little effect on the evolution of regional disparity of per capita GDP mainly due to the effect of"capital-chasing-labor".This result differs much from many empirical studies of China's labor migration,most of which argue that inter-region migration in China will contribute much to the convergence of regional economy,but it does consistent with some theory models and consistent with the evolution of China's regional disparity.