银行间债市收益率上扬的成因及后市展望

自2013年6月以来，利率的上行趋势已从货币市场利率扩散到中长端国债收益率，并蔓延到短端收益率。回归分析结果表明，经济基本面和资金面仅可部分解释国债收益率的上涨。文章进一步分析指出，货币政策维持中性偏紧趋向、金融机构调整资产配置结构削减债券投资额度、银行筹资方式多元化推高资金成本这三大因素，也是引起本轮利率接力上行的显著外力。中长期看，债券市场收益率中枢将随之抬升。在中性偏紧的货币政策基调没有改变前，债券市场将只有阶段性回嗳而无趋势性好转的行情。

Reasons for interbank market bond yields rise and the future trend

Since June 2013, the interest rate rise has extended from money market interest rates to medium-term and long- term treasury bond yields, and has further extended to short-term yields. The regression analysis shows that the economic fundamentals and the fund position only provide partial reasons for rising treasury bond yields. The article further analyzes that the three factors, namely the monetary policy maintaining a neutral to tight tendency, the financial institutions adjusting their asset allocation to reduce the bond investment and the bank＇s wide variety of funding methods driving up fund costs, have created a strong external forces for the consecutive rise of the interest rates. In midto long- term, the bond market yields will rise accordingly. As long as the monetary policy being still in neutral to tight, the bond market would only see a temporary rally rather than an overall improvement.