Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters

This paper examines the forecasting of growth cycle turning points by comparing the performances of US and Japanese professional forecasters with those of a simple time-series model, using real-time data. The empirical results, obtained after performing contingency table analyses and visual inspections, indicate that the US professional forecasters considerably outperform the simple time-series model; however, the Japanese professional forecaster is comparable to the simple time-series model in the visual inspections of major turning points.