| 我国铁路客运量的组合预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘延平,邵悦然,李卫东.我国铁路客运量的组合预测[J].物流技术,2010,29(7):58-59,85. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘延平 邵悦然 李卫东 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先对我国月度铁路客运量的变动特征进行了分析，并结合多元线性回归和时间序列预测两种模型，运用组合预测方法对2009年1月至12月的铁路客运量进行了预测，结果表明预测误差小，组合预测精度相对单个预测方法均有所提高，说明组合预测是月度铁路客运量预测的有效方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 多元回归 ARIMA 精度 组合预测 |
Combination Forecasting of Railway Passenger Transport Volume in China |
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| LIU Yan-ping,SHAO Yue-ran,LI Wei-dong.Combination Forecasting of Railway Passenger Transport Volume in China[J].Logistics Technology,2010,29(7):58-59,85. |
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| Authors: | LIU Yan-ping SHAO Yue-ran LI Wei-dong |
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| Institution: | LIU Yan-ping,SHAO Yue-ran,LI Wei-dong(School of Economics & Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper firstly analyzes the monthly variation pattern of railway passenger transport volume in China and then,taking together multiple linear regression and time series forecasting,carries out a combination forecasting on the transport volume from January to December of 2009,with results showing the forecasting error to be smaller than those obtained through single-method forecasting,thus proving the validity of the combination forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | multiple regression ARIMA accuracy combination forecasting |
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