人民币汇率波动对我国出口影响的微观探讨

通过构建一个使用进口资源和本地资源进行生产的企业微观模型,就人民币实际汇率波动率对我国出口贸易企业产量及利润的影响展开分析,并得出汇率波动率对出口贸易的影响取决于企业规模经济状况的结论:对于生产规模报酬递增的企业,实际汇率波动率的增大会使其产量减小,而对利润的影响是不确定的;对于生产规模报酬递减的企业,实际汇率波动率的增大会提高其产量,并增加企业利润。通过对人民币实际有效汇率、中国出口额的数据进行协整关系检验、Granger因果检验,证明了人民币实际有效汇率波动率对我国出口有显著影响,也基本证实了这一理论模型的结论。

A Micro-Perspective Study of the Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on China's Export

This paper constructs a micro model of trade enterprise which uses import and local resources to manufacture in nowadays' situation where the globalization is becoming increasingly prevalent.It makes an analysis of the effect of RMB exchange rate volatility on Chinese export enterprise's output and profit. Under the equilibrium analysis,an argument that this effect depends on the scale economy situation of the enterprise is made: increase in exchange rate volatility will increase the output if the enterprise has decreasing returns to scale;as to the enterprise which has increasing returns to scale,the effect is negative.However,the effect of exchange rate volatility on the profit is uncertain. It further demonstrates this argument by making an empirical test with the co-integration models and Granger causality test based on the RMB exchange rate and Chinese export data.