我国财政风险指数预警方法的研究

财政风险预警系统是一个由数据库、预警方法、预警指标、预警模型和预警信号系统等多方面构成的财政管理信息系统.本文以指数预警方法为主,选择20个预警指标,并确定了各指标的预警区间,设置了财政风险预警信号系统.将1990-2001年间相关预警指标的样本数据输入上述系统,结果表明样本期内我国的财政风险一直未超过轻警区间的警戒线,处于基本安全状态,并且呈现出2轮小的波动周期.但这期间多数年份财政风险的合成指数接近警戒线,应有所警惕.

A Study of Fiscal Risk Index Early Warning Method in China

Fiscal risk Early Warning System (EWS) is a fiscal management information system, which is made up of database, early - warning methods, early - warning indexes, early - warning model and signaling system. In order to appraise the fiscal risk quantitatively, we adopted index early - warning method and selected 20 early - warning indicators with respective threshold value. Finally we set up a fiscal risk early - warning signaling system. By inputting the sample data of these indicators in the period 1990 - 2001, we found that fiscal risk had been low by and large in the sample period. However, in most years of the sample period, the value of fiscal risk composite indexes were near to the warning level, which deserves more attention.