一种车辆重载运输社会经济影响的评估方法

基于系统动力学(System Dynamics)理论建立公路货运系统的系统动力学模型,通过仿真分析车辆载重程度对货运需求、车辆使用决策、车型演化、车辆运输成本以及路面性能的长期动态作用,继而进行车辆重载运输的社会经济影响评估。最后形成一套完整的公路货运车辆重载运输对社会经济影响的系统化研究方法。基于实例的仿真结果表明,在货运车辆普遍重载的条件下,生产要素价格的变动、路面厚度的提高、路面维修间隔期的改变和公路税费标准的调整均不会对车流轴载水平乃至公路货运系统的运行产生根本性影响。在实施车辆载重限制后,系统行为又表现出以下重要特征:反直观性、远期与近期利益相矛盾、系统绩效受车辆载重标准与产业结构的影响较大。

A Methodological Framework for Evaluation on Social Impacts of Trucks Overweight Transportation

In order to make evaluation on social impacts of truck overweight transportation,a methodological framework with a integrated system dynamics(SD)model which include freight demand sub-model,vehicle usage sub-model,vehicle operating cost sub-model,vehicle evolvement sub-model and road performance sub-model,is established.As an application in Anhui,the long-term performance of highway freight transportation under different vehicle weight limit strategies are analyzed using above SD model.The evaluation results show that the highway freight system has poor sensitivity to fuel price,pavement thickness,pavement maintain interval and road user tax with the situation of ubiquitous overloading and a moderate VWR is necessary to be introduced.