| 基于SVR模型的区域公路货物周转量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 汤俊,杨浪萍.基于SVR模型的区域公路货物周转量预测[J].商品储运与养护,2011(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 汤俊 杨浪萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 金华广播电视大学财经学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 针对区域货物周转量的特点:时间上的大波动性和区域之间的密切相关性,指出:反映区域货物周转量预测的指标数据存在高度的非线性、耦合性和时变性。通过对区域公路货物周转量历史数据的分析,确定了相关预测变量。在上述基础上,建立了基于SVR的区域公路货运周转量预测模型。由于该模型建立在统计学习理论的基础上,因而具有良好的非线性数据处理能力,并保证了预测模型的泛化性能。以金华市为应用对象,说明了该模型的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 核方法 支持向量回归 公路货物周转量 中期预测 |
Regional Road Freight Turnover Forecast Based on Support Vector Regression Model |
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| TANG Jun,YANG Lang-ping.Regional Road Freight Turnover Forecast Based on Support Vector Regression Model[J].Storage Transportation & Preservation of Commodities,2011(3). |
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| Authors: | TANG Jun YANG Lang-ping |
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| Institution: | TANG Jun,YANG Lang-ping(School of Finance and Economics,Jinhua Radio &TV University,Jinhua 321022,China) |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the characteristics of regional freight turnover such as big fluctuation of time,consanguineous relativity among regions,and pointed out the high nonlinearity,coupling and time change character of indexes data which reflect regional freight turnover.Through analyzing history regional road freight turnover data,we confirmed the interrelated forecast variable and established regional road freight turnover forecast model based on support vector regression.Because this model is based on statistical le... |
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| Keywords: | kernel method support vector regression(SVR) road freight turnover medium-term forecast |
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